In this post, I want to touch upon the topic of overpopulation on Earth. A few months ago, the population of our planet exceeded 8 billion people 🎉. When you add in all the environmental issues and projections regarding overpopulation for the coming decades, the situation seems quite alarming 😨. Let's try to delve deeper into the problem of overpopulation and its forecasts, and see if we can find some interesting facts 🤔.
Despite the fact that the total population of Earth has been growing at a rapid pace for the last 100 years 📈, in half of the countries around the world, the mortality rate exceeds the birth rate. This means that many countries face significant challenges in continuing their nations. Wikipedia has a special page titled “List of countries by total fertility rate” 🚩. We are interested in the countries with a fertility rate below 2.1 📉. If this rate is below this value, it indicates that the nation is slowly (and in some cases quickly) dying out. Of the 205 countries on the list, 105 have a fertility rate below 2.1. It is also interesting to note that the current population leaders, India and China, are also “dying out” countries. Although in reality, they are far from the extinction of their nations, and these rates have been legislatively regulated in these countries. For example, China implemented the “One-child policy” 👪 from 1979 to 2015. However, besides China and India, there are many developed countries on this list of 105. Generally, the more developed a country is, the more challenging the situation with birth rates tends to be. Conversely, countries with higher birth rates are typically poorer. Predominantly, high birth rates are found in African countries. The paradox of the situation is that in these countries, adults often face issues with nutrition, hygiene, and overall living standards. Yet, these problems do not prevent the populations of these countries from maintaining high birth rates.
Despite the common belief about overpopulation on Earth, a closer look at the details reveals that developed countries are facing significant problems with birth rates. In 50 to 70 years, the indigenous populations of European countries may shrink considerably 📉. The issue of declining populations is already a pressing concern in many countries today. Many nations are currently implementing pension reforms and raising the retirement age 👵. One of the latest countries to do this is France, where the retirement age has been increased from 62 to 64 years. So, if there are already problems today with a lack of workers and governments being unwilling (or unable) to pay pensions, the situation is unlikely to improve in the coming decades. This means that you shouldn’t count 💵 on government assistance during your retirement in 30 years, so it’s better to think about your pension now. On the other hand, perhaps some will be fortunate: your country could become a second Switzerland 🇨🇭 or a Scandinavian country, where there won’t be financial issues and the workforce will arrive 🚌 from African countries. Speaking of African countries, it is expected that these nations will exert greater influence in the global economy in the future than they do now. Regardless of the circumstances, the populations of these countries will grow, and these people (at least a minimum) will be engaged in their economies. However, it is possible that some individuals from Africa will migrate to other countries. For example, migration from African countries to Italy and Spain 🚣♂️, and then on to Germany, England, and France has been ongoing for many decades.
Despite the fact that the population of our planet has been growing geometrically over the last few centuries, I am convinced that in a few centuries, or perhaps even much sooner, this geometric growth will come to an end ⛔️. Even in African and Latin American countries, as living standards rise (if we draw an analogy with European countries), birth rates will significantly decline. Moreover, birth rates are likely to become “controlled,” similar to modern-day China, if there is indeed a need for controlled birth rates. So far, no incentives from developed countries have been able to increase birth rates (not low mortgage rates, not high salaries, nor other social advertisements and packages). The millennial generation 👫 wants to travel and enjoy life rather than have children.
It will also be interesting to follow the development of the space industry and the colonization of other planets 🛰. While it may be too early to talk about colonizing neighboring star systems, colonizing planets and moons within our solar system may be just around the corner 🚀. Initially, humans will start with Mars, then move on to the moons of gas giants, such as Europa and Enceladus, as well as other potentially habitable objects or those that are easiest to colonize. Achieving this within the next 150–200 years is more than realistic.
